Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 81415.864428 85937.504501 90456.123228 95307.299631 100364.782482 105478.597233 111036.877860
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 73493.400985 80383.964508 87461.972314 95265.717562 103617.812952 112278.374669 121927.218565
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 68757.354372 77335.508847 86338.314800 96470.048680 107533.114994 119224.802008 132493.133183
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 64076.102577 73814.085680 84222.630653 96140.799321 109374.038669 123580.868451 139949.456019
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 61445.564118 72249.811035 83979.599555 97608.848232 112956.156170 129650.080733 149126.897401
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 58883.529177 70542.875696 83381.509721 98497.439662 115734.339128 134703.634343 157081.877509
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 56148.819597 68458.381177 82193.928094 98565.790445 117453.332934 138463.293412 163501.544906
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 53585.440341 66424.978005 80931.698416 98422.520798 118820.386735 141736.500488 169302.374382
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 52395.382805 65914.902234 81359.820757 100171.503292 122318.978151 147417.111837 177853.671109
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 51302.075826 65447.332438 81776.781596 101856.066558 125706.656340 152953.592389 186245.527366
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49803.427900 64417.811454 81463.215927 102619.296589 127967.400730 157152.755469 193073.728493
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47942.055491 62869.789237 80459.786448 102494.466369 129121.603325 160016.326627 198313.046544
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 46420.801499 61709.821641 79908.412185 102913.302151 130945.892315 163715.891287 204619.027668
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44777.235142 60341.471737 79055.193477 102925.340192 132253.268836 166791.303069 210194.730059
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43877.447566 59866.993856 79268.723674 104218.834176 135102.225103 171713.467501 218002.188670
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42240.563752 58397.940895 78194.161447 103871.187301 135903.348338 174140.296588 222791.396076
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41604.565558 58182.857201 78666.538692 105433.530672 139050.886878 179419.627085 231062.435661
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40724.348949 57616.619286 78666.189527 106378.838555 141419.068516 183747.023324 238189.173868
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39499.704322 56558.434429 78002.347277 106451.565158 142671.945241 186691.369122 243620.767440
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38239.520192 55412.530076 77188.787600 106299.185163 143614.263834 189235.087231 248554.057116
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37909.910600 55490.674407 77947.558895 108159.272775 147106.419096 194959.151119 257458.774696
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37570.791657 55539.619078 78656.920679 109950.475752 150515.386745 200595.870448 266288.424256
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 36844.484912 55039.119524 78624.805881 110761.903066 152662.689521 204653.887133 273162.061759